INTHEBLACK October 2026 - Magazine - Page 52
WORK SMART
or pressure, and then look for data to support it.”
This bias does not only affect how we
interpret data, it also shapes how we interpret
our own intuition. Mostly dismissed as a
“gut feeling”, intuition is far from irrational.
More often, it reflects the that the brain has
rapidly processed patterns built through
experience — long before we can articulate
the thought.
That does not mean intuition is unreliable.
In fact, it can become more refined over time.
With expertise and repeated exposure, people
develop the ability to recognise patterns quickly
and sense when something is not quite right,
says Gibbings.
“Intuition is based on experience, and you
can hone and develop it through your expertise
and that sense that something is not right.
It prompts you to examine assumptions, work
out what you are missing, and consider what
you are not hearing or seeing. It is your brain
recognising patterns and identifying something
before you are able to fully articulate it,” she says.
However, research suggests intuition is only
dependable under specific conditions,
according to the work of Daniel Kahneman
and Gary Klein, who outline two critical factors
that Gibbings recounts.
“The first is that the environment must
be stable and predictable enough for
meaningful patterns to exist. The second
is that the decision-maker must have had
repeated experience and clear feedback
from which to learn.”
When these conditions are absent, intuition
becomes far less reliable and more vulnerable
to bias, overconfidence or misinterpretation,
Kahneman and Klein’s research suggests.
Even highly experienced leaders are not
immune. Stress, fatigue, personal bias and
incomplete information can all distort
judgement. What feels like intuition may
sometimes be anxiety, urgency or a desire
for certainty.
For that reason, intuition is most valuable
as a starting point rather than a final answer,
Kemp says.
“Intuition can signal where attention should
be directed. It can raise questions, identify risks
or highlight opportunities. But it still requires
validation. The most effective decision-makers
treat intuition as a hypothesis to be tested
rather than a conclusion to be defended.”
52 INTHEBLACK October 2026
UNDERSTANDING THE TRIGGERS
Effective decision-makers are not those who
remove emotion from the process, but those
who understand how it influences them, Kemp
says. “The overarching point to keep in mind
is that, regardless of how rational or quantitative
we believe our problem-solving approach to be,
there will always be a confounding variable in
the form of emotion.”
For leaders and managers, the key is to
understand what the emotion is, then recognise
how it is being triggered or stimulated.
For professionals in data-driven fields, there
are ways to bring an emotional dimension
into decision-making in a constructive way
and allow its influence to be recognised, rather
than ignored.
“There is now much more openness to
discussing emotion and the broader context
influencing a decision,” Kemp says. “It is
increasingly recognised that decision-making
is not purely driven by numbers and analysis,
even in highly quantitative environments.”
One way to make this more acceptable is
to normalise it by creating space to talk about
emotions openly within decision-making
processes. “It also helps to maintain curiosity
rather than judgement, framing it as part of how
we make decisions together, rather than as a
flaw in reasoning,” he says. “Over time, the goal
is to build awareness of these patterns earlier
in the problem-solving process. From there,
the focus shifts to managing and, where
appropriate, compartmentalising those
emotional responses within the decision-making
cycle, so they inform judgement without
unintentionally driving it.” ■
READ
EXPLORE
an article about
how to express
emotions at work
CPA Australia’s
Analytical Tools
to Support Decisionmaking short course
