INTHEBLACK June 2026 - Magazine - Page 44
F E AT U R E
“2025 was a genuine rebound, and that energy is flowing into
2026. However, this recovery remains uneven — some might
say ‘K-shaped’. Like last year, we expect that well-capitalised
buyers will continue to pursue large transactions while the
mid-market will have a tougher time engaging in dealmaking.”
JENS KENGELBACH, BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
SUCCESSION PLANNING
Founder-led exits and ownership transitions
are expected to define M&A deal flow for
many years to come. “Succession planning is
a big driver in the M&A mid-market,” says
Craig. “We have typically found vendors,
including baby boomers, have continued
to run their businesses and delay an exit
for longer than expected. But they are now
reaching that decision point in great numbers.
“Succession planning is something that
is separated from just pure market dynamics,
because it is often influenced by lifestyle,
health and other personal decisions, and less
so by geopolitical or economic impacts.”
Gummy New CPA, a director at
Gamma Capital Advisory, which provides
support to businesses on both buy-and-sellside M&A engagements, says a lot of his
work revolves around the sale of businesses
by founders because their children are not
interested in taking the reins.
The founders either go external to private
equity firms or there is a management
buyout, he says. “I find management to be
a very good avenue because they are there,
they know the business better than anyone
else, they are motivated to grow the business
and they would love to own the business.”
New says the types of M&A deals being
done have evolved significantly from the
days when the default for a transaction was
a complete exit.
“Now you are seeing more flexible
structures, investors buying minority stakes,
owners getting roll-ups into the parent
company, earn-outs and sellers getting the
consideration paid in the form of shares
in the parent company — which is also
effectively an earn-out.”
REGULATORY REFORM IMPACTS
A quick glance at the ACCC's new
acquisitions register shows there is no
44 INTHEBLACK June 2026
shortage of large proposed deals currently
under assessment by the regulator.
The ACCC’s register could be regarded
as the pulse of the top end of Australia’s
M&A marketplace, and it still seems
to be relatively strong despite the prospect
of deteriorating economic conditions in 2026.
Under new ACCC merger reform laws
that came into effect on 1 January 2026,
subject to some exemptions, any proposed
acquisition that falls above specified value
and/or revenue thresholds must receive
approval or a notification waiver from
the ACCC before it can proceed.
The Pitcher Partners research shows that
regulatory change has emerged as one of
the dominant concerns in Australia for 2026,
particularly around delays in government
approvals for foreign investment.
“For cross-border buyers, dual track
regulatory processes may create compounding
delays that can stretch deal timelines by
months,” the report states.
Craig notes that while dealmakers are
finding their way through the new process,
they are adapting to the new reality and
viewing the new regulations as part
of the compliance process.
“It is another cost and another time
imposition. But I do not think it has
changed the landscape or changed the
momentum of the deal flow, because it is
something businesses have got to get through
one way or another. There is no way around it.”
In an address to the Committee for Economic
Development of Australia in February, the
ACCC’s chair, Gina Cass-Gottlieb, said
acquisitions that do not raise competition
issues “can be dealt with quickly with minimal
burden. At the same time, the small number
of complex and contentious acquisitions which
raise potential competition concerns can be
identified with mandatory notification
and subject to careful scrutiny through
