INTHEBLACK July 2026 - Magazine - Page 28
F E AT U R E
“We need to shift the trade-off [some] women face between
paid work and care by making work more attractive. This
means good-quality jobs with options for flexibility, because
women mostly carry the burden of care responsibilities.”
SUNEHA SEETAHUL, AUSTRALIAN CENTRE FOR GENDER EQUALITY AND INCLUSION AT WORK,
UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY
PRODUCTIVITY AND PLANNING
Birthrate decline is also a challenge for
productivity, which is already weakening.
Over the decade to 2020, average annual
productivity growth in Australia was the
slowest in 60 years, falling to just 1.2 per cent.
“With falling fertility and an ageing
workforce, it is possible productivity will
decline even further, meaning Australians
will have to work even harder and longer
to afford goods and services,” says
Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo, chief economist
at PRD. “Already the Australian Government
has reduced its productivity assumption
forecast from 1.5 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
This downgrade implies, on average,
Australians’ incomes in 40 years are projected
to be almost 20 per cent lower than they
would otherwise be.”
On top of this, a rising age dependency
ratio — which is the ratio of people younger
than 15 or older than 64 to the working-age
population aged 15 to 64 — creates tighter,
less sustainable fiscal policies. Government
spending on aged care is a rising tension
point. According to KPMG, permanent
residential aged care numbers increased
by 3.4 per cent in the 2025 financial year.
Planning authorities also need to
consider how high housing costs affect
family planning and shift housing demand
toward smaller, more dense urban units
or affordable regional areas. Consequently,
expect more local government areas
to follow south-east Queensland’s lead,
with a Shaping SEQ 2023 regional plan
that seeks to facilitate more freestanding
small lots or terrace-style developments.
Newer housing models such as
build-to-rent also have a role to play,
to ensure people have access to affordable,
medium-density accommodation.
28 INTHEBLACK July 2026
EMPLOYEE MANAGEMENT
In the private sector, the lower birthrates
force a change in how profits are generated
and employees are managed. This involves
a change from hiring relatively cheaper,
younger labour to hiring more experienced
and expensive labour.
“Firms that fail to adapt may see margin
pressure and slower growth, while those
that proactively adjust workforce and capital
strategies can remain financially sustainable
and competitive,” says Mardiasmo.
Falling birthrates mean organisations
must now rethink how they improve the way
they attract and retain younger staff.
“At the same time, organisations must plan
to retain their current and older workforce,
so they remain highly productive,” says
Mardiasmo. This will include reskilling,
flexible work models such as part-time roles,
phased retirement plans and job redesign.
Using automation and technology to offset
labour shortages and temper wage growth
is key.
“Governments influence the big levers
in society like taxation,” says Guest.
“But businesses plan workforces, and if
labour supply falls relative to demand for
goods and services, then you would get
upward pressure on wages because there
are fewer workers competing for jobs.
So businesses have an incentive to use
labour-saving technologies like artificial
intelligence. Firms might also need to be
more open to employing older workers
in industries that have traditionally been
dominated by younger workers, like hotels
and food services.”
REGIONAL COMPARISON
At 1.73, Australia’s fertility rate compares
reasonably well to other nations such
