INTHEBLACK April 2025 - Magazine - Page 41
“You may have bushfires in a region and you start
to rebuild, but then the heavy rain comes soon after,
or another bushfire — so it’s about being equipped
to deal with this high variability and increasing
frequency of extreme climate and weather.”
DR JACI BROWN, CSIRO
that climate change is expected to make
storm and flood events more severe.
Research from the University of New South
Wales also shows that rapid rain bursts in
Sydney have been 40 per cent more intense
in the past two decades.
Sea-level rise is expected to cause
most sandy beaches on the NSW coast to
recede, but this physical impact may not
be experienced for many decades and is
dependent on the level of future greenhouse
gas emissions. Approximately 80 per cent
of the NSW population live within
50 kilometres of the coast.
Melbourne is also experiencing more
intense storms and flooding, as well as
sea level rise. In 2018, for example, the city
experienced a one-in-1000-year rainfall
event, with 50mm of rain falling in
15 minutes.
The City of Melbourne predicts that
climate change will cost the local economy
A$12.6 billion by 2050 and will impact
agriculture, tourism, insurance and finance.
“There’s natural variability in our climate
in Australia, and then there’s climate change
in the background. We will see the effects
of climate change through changes in our
natural climate fluctuations,” explains
Dr Jaci Brown, research director for the
Climate Intelligence Program and the lead
of CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre.
“Australia is used to dealing with tough
climates, and that’s a strength, but we
can expect extra pressure on top of that
due to climate change.
“There’s unlikely to be any big tipping
points in the next 10 years — rather a
continuation of the changes we are already
recording. We’re already experiencing hotter
conditions and, when you look to 2035,
we can expect it to be hotter for longer.”
Brown says hotter temperatures are
a greater concern for cities like Sydney.
“What does that look like for your
workers if you’re in the healthcare sector,
for example? If you’re in the health
industry, are you ready for the impact
on public health during a summer of more
heatwaves, especially if you are working
with vulnerable populations?
“The impact of bushfires may be a bigger
issue for Melbourne, due to the smoke
blowing in from affected areas in Victoria
and impacting air quality,” adds Brown.
However, it is not just about preparing
for singular events, Brown notes. “You may
have bushfires in a region and you start
to rebuild, but then the heavy rain comes
soon after, or another bushfire — so it’s
about being equipped to deal with this high
variability and increasing frequency
of extreme climate and weather.
“[Australia’s] resilience to deal with all
of those things happening at once is going
to test us.” ■
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