INTHEBLACK July/August 2023 - Magazine - Page 42
F E AT U R E
World Economic Forum – Experts Explain with Adam Tooze
What is the polycrisis?
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clarity, intricate interdependencies and the
potential for multiple interpretations.
In a sense, polycrisis is a form of VUCA,
where multiple crises contribute to a
situation’s overall volatility, uncertainty,
complexity and ambiguity.
While unprecedented global events prove
no one can predict the future, preparing for
the worst may help to address urgent problems
as they emerge. Could it also help to seize the
opportunities that often accompany a crisis?
WHEN CRISES COLLIDE
Crises have become the new normal since
COVID‑19 swept the globe.
Collins Dictionary named “permacrisis”
as its 2022 word of the year. It defines the
term as an “extended period of instability
and insecurity, especially one resulting from
a series of catastrophic events”.
A key characteristic of polycrisis is that
many of the events are connected, so the
overall impact is worse than the sum of
its parts. The pandemic, for instance, led
to more than just a health crisis. It caused
42 INTHEBLACK July/August 2023
supply chain disruptions, which contributed
to price hikes. Governments injected more
money into the economy, and consumer
demand outstripped supply. Then, inflation
spiked, leading to rises in interest rates. The
cost of living increased, while social unrest
continued to rise.
Nicki Hutley, independent economist and
councillor for the Climate Council, says crises
are increasing in frequency.
“We used to have more regular business
cycles, and countries like Australia had a long
period of wellbeing that perhaps has caught us
off guard for some of these crises.
“The interconnectedness of the world and
the rise of climate change, for example, just
means that the number of crises seems to
occur more and more often,” Hutley says.
The Global Risks Report 2023 from the
World Economic Forum describes the early
2020s as “a particularly disruptive period in
human history”. The report is underpinned
by the Global Risks Perception Survey,
which brings together leading insights
from more than 1200 experts across the
